Another December brings another heartbreak.
Nearly a year after one of the wildest weeks in Blue Jays history, the Shohei Ohtani drama, they are now forced to watch as their most recent high-profile pursue, Juan Soto, signs elsewhere.
Soto’s reported 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets is the highest in professional sports history, surpassing Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million agreement struck with the Dodgers last summer. Each time, the Blue Jays have been aggressive, using the financial might of Rogers ownership to make large, bold moves for a superstar. Every time, they’ve seen that player sign somewhere.
These ambitions are difficult for an organization like the Blue Jays to deal with. The baseball industry enjoys the “process vs. results” discussion, which all too frequently employs process as a cloak when the results do not exist. It’s great that the Blue Jays have been involved in these discussions, building on club-record payrolls, but finishing second, third, or fourth in a pursuit like this is irrelevant. The hard reality is that you either sign a player or not. With New York still rocking, the Blue Jays confront an enormously critical week for the organization’s future.
The Blue Jays are not alone, of course. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox were among the reported candidates for Soto, although two of those teams only made the World Series two months ago. The Blue Jays are struggling to reach their full potential and need to make significant changes soon.
THE PIVOT: WHAT’S NEXT
Earlier Sunday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand claimed that the Blue Jays are interested in old pal Teoscar Hernández, but appear to favor Anthony Santander, another power-hitting outfielder they know well from his time with the Orioles.
The Red Sox intend to pursue Teoscar Hernandez if they don’t sign Juan Soto, per source. Boston is believed to prefer Hernandez over Anthony Santander. The Blue Jays are also in the mix for Hernandez, though it appears they prefer the switch-hitting Santander.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 8, 2024
The Blue Jays need to fully rebuild their bullpen and intend to acquire a starter, but considering how rapidly and radically the hitting market is changing, expect this to be their primary emphasis for the time being. Michael Conforto agreed to a one-year contract with the Dodgers on Sunday, so Hernández and Santander are next in line.
A year ago, Plan B was less evident following Ohtani’s signing. What is evident in retrospect is that the Blue Jays must do more this time. Toronto signed Justin Turner, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Kevin Kiermaier, and Yariel Rodríguez, but despite some positive aspects, the team did not significantly improve its performance. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette entering their final year of club control, there is no time to stress over the floor. This squad need upside, excitement, power, and a touch of swagger, all of which necessitate big moves from the front office.
WHAT ABOUT VLADDY? IMPACT ON GUERRERO
Guerrero remains the focal point of his group. Beyond Soto’s baseball excellence, a deal of that size would have symbolized something more than a single player. It would have signaled the Blue Jays’ full and total commitment to maintaining this level of spending — or even increasing it — for the next decade and beyond.
Until we see another four-year pact (or two), it’s natural to question what happens beyond 2025.
At first glance, it’s tempting to believe that the money originally intended for Soto could be pushed down the table for Guerrero, the popular, hometown star. Vladdy, on the other hand, is astute and understands that as a 26-year-old, he will be eligible for free agency. No, he’s not Juan Soto, but can a deal like this persuade Guerrero and his supporters that he can handle $400 million rather than $300 million? Maybe $35 million a year instead of $28 million?
Those are hypotheticals for another day, but they do not make it any easier for the Blue Jays to reach an agreement.
Consider the Blue Jays back at square one, which isn’t always a terrible thing. It’s about Guerrero again, the full focus back on keeping their own star after another winter spent chasing others. Part of the attractiveness of Ohtani and Soto was the prospect of them playing alongside Vladdy, and unless the Blue Jays either extend Guerrero or pair him with a talent who is here to stay, the chance of a window shutting grows.
