The arbitration situation between the Cubs and Kyle Tucker highlights the team’s consistent approach to contract negotiations. With the Cubs filing at $15 million and Tucker countering with $17.5 million, there’s a $2.5 million gap to resolve before a potential arbitration hearing. While the Cubs have historically followed a “file-and-trial” approach—where they stop negotiating once figures are exchanged and proceed to arbitration—they have shown some flexibility in unique circumstances, like Willson Contreras’ case in 2022.
Tucker’s value to the Cubs, both offensively and defensively, makes this negotiation significant. After joining the team, Tucker likely became a key part of their lineup, so reaching an agreement could help avoid the distractions of a hearing. However, arbitration hearings tend to put a spotlight on differences between a team’s valuation of a player and the player’s own perception of their worth. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs decide to compromise or stick to their procedural approach.
The Cubs’ inability to finalize a deal with Kyle Tucker ahead of the arbitration deadline marks an unusual exception in what has been a productive offseason for resolving arbitration cases. While they successfully avoided hearings with key players like lefty Justin Steele and relievers Nate Pearson and Eli Morgan, Tucker’s unresolved situation leaves a significant decision on the horizon.
Tucker, a star outfielder, exchanged salary figures with the Cubs—$15 million from the team and $17.5 million from his camp—highlighting the substantial value both sides place on his contributions. Though the Cubs often avoid hearings, they do maintain the option to continue negotiating up until the scheduled arbitration date. Tucker’s situation is pivotal, as his performance and leadership likely make him one of the team’s cornerstones for 2025, his final year of arbitration eligibility.
If the Cubs’ history of finding common ground is any indication, there’s a chance they may bridge the gap before the hearing. However, if they adhere to their file-and-trial stance, the arbitration panel will decide Tucker’s 2025 salary. This decision could set a precedent for how the Cubs handle star players entering arbitration in future seasons.
The Cubs’ history with arbitration hearings highlights their general success in avoiding such confrontations, with only eight cases reaching the hearing stage since 1980 and just three since 1994. The most recent example, Ian Happ’s 2021 hearing, saw him prevail, marking the first player victory against the Cubs since Shawon Dunston in 1990. This demonstrates that while the Cubs have historically been adept at resolving arbitration cases before they escalate, when hearings do occur, players have occasionally succeeded in making their case.
Kyle Tucker’s unresolved arbitration case now becomes a high-profile test of the Cubs’ approach. Given Tucker’s status as a star outfielder and his crucial role for the team in 2025, both sides will likely feel the pressure to avoid the adversarial nature of a hearing. However, should it proceed, Tucker could draw on the precedent set by Happ’s win to strengthen his position.
The outcome will not only determine Tucker’s salary but could also impact the Cubs’ reputation for arbitration negotiations and set the tone for future dealings with other players.
Kyle Tucker’s arbitration case is a pivotal moment in his transition to the Cubs, both financially and symbolically, as the team prepares to make him a cornerstone of their roster. With his camp filing for $17.5 million and the Cubs countering at $15 million, the $2.5 million gap is a reflection of Tucker’s elite production, despite his injury-limited 2024 season. His final arbitration year also coincides with his age-28 season, making an extension discussion timely if the Cubs hope to keep him beyond 2025.
Acquired in a blockbuster trade with the Astros in December, Tucker’s arrival came at the cost of significant talent, including Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and top prospect Cam Smith. The Cubs’ subsequent trade of Cody Bellinger to the Yankees cleared a path for Tucker to be a primary outfielder alongside Seiya Suzuki, showcasing Chicago’s commitment to him as a centerpiece of their lineup.
Tucker’s résumé speaks for itself: 21.2 WAR, an .888 OPS across the past four seasons, three All-Star selections, a Gold Glove, and a top-five MVP finish. Even in an injury-shortened 2024, he still posted an outstanding 4.7 bWAR, slashing .289/.408/.585 with 23 home runs, showing his ability to impact games in multiple ways.
Tucker’s openness to extension talks signals that a long-term deal is possible, especially as he nears free agency. The Cubs could seize this opportunity to lock him in as a foundational piece, solidifying their lineup and preventing competition from entering the bidding next winter. With Tucker and Suzuki anchoring the outfield, the Cubs are positioning themselves for sustained success, and resolving the arbitration case amicably could pave the way for an extension and a strong working relationship moving forward.
Justin Steele remains a critical piece of the Cubs’ rotation, continuing to build on the success that made him a National League Cy Young contender in 2023. While injuries limited him to 134 2/3 innings in 2024, Steele still posted an excellent 3.07 ERA, nearly identical to his 3.06 ERA from his breakout 2023 season. His consistency in strikeouts (9.0 K/9) and home run prevention (0.8 HR/9) underscores his reliability when healthy. Entering 2025, the 29-year-old All-Star will look to remain an anchor for a rotation that now includes Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, and Javier Assad, with the potential for further reinforcements.
The Cubs also bolstered their bullpen by retaining hard-throwing righty Nate Pearson, who agreed to a $1.35 million deal to avoid arbitration. Acquired from the Blue Jays at the 2024 trade deadline, Pearson showed flashes of dominance with his high-velocity fastball and swing-and-miss stuff. He is poised to take on high-leverage innings in 2025, further solidifying a bullpen that could be a strength for the team.
With Steele leading the rotation and Pearson stepping into a significant bullpen role, the Cubs are positioning themselves for a competitive 2025 campaign. Additional offseason moves to enhance the pitching staff would only further bolster their aspirations to contend in the National League.
