On Tuesday, the Mets made a decision that might have an impact on the futures of two of their top prospects.
New York did not add any players to its 40-man roster, making numerous players, including right-handed pitchers Mike Vasil and Dom Hamel, vulnerable in the Rule 5 Draft. These players might wear new outfits next season, with the Mets receiving nothing in return.
Dominic Hamel, the Mets’ No. 15 prospect, endured a challenging 2024 season in the minors, marked by significant declines in several key areas. His 6.86 ERA was a career-worst, compounded by giving up 77 walks and 141 hits across 124 2/3 innings. These struggles highlight control issues that undermined his effectiveness, a stark contrast to his earlier promise.
On the positive side, Hamel maintained a solid strikeout total of 124 with a 21.3% strikeout rate, which, while respectable, represented a dip from his previous seasons, where he consistently hovered around 30%. These numbers suggest that Hamel’s ability to miss bats is still intact, but his command and overall consistency need to improve.
Despite his difficult season, Hamel’s potential as a high-strikeout pitcher keeps him ranked among the Mets’ top prospects, showing that the organization still believes in his ceiling. If he can address his control and refine his approach, Hamel could reclaim his trajectory as a promising arm in the Mets’ system.
Dominic Hamel’s track record prior to 2024 highlights why he remains one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects. In 2023, Hamel posted a 3.85 ERA with 160 strikeouts over 124 innings, showcasing his potential as a strikeout machine. His total was the highest by a Mets minor leaguer since 2018 and ranked second in the Eastern League. His previous season, 2022, was even more impressive, as he earned the Mets’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors after going 10-3 with a 3.25 ERA and striking out 145 batters over 119 innings. These performances underscore his ceiling when he’s at his best.
On the other hand, Mike Vasil, the Mets’ No. 18 prospect, also has considerable potential with a diverse four-pitch arsenal, including a slider, sweeper, changeup, and a high-90s four-seam fastball. The Mets showed faith in Vasil’s abilities by inviting him to spring training in 2024, giving him valuable exposure to major-league pitchers. However, his 6.04 ERA in Triple-A over 29 games (27 starts) this past season highlights the inconsistency that has plagued his development. Despite these struggles, his repertoire and raw talent suggest he has the tools to become a big-league contributor if he can refine his execution and approach.
Both Hamel and Vasil represent high-upside arms for the Mets, though their performance in 2024 underscores the developmental challenges ahead. With improved command and consistency, they could still become valuable assets in the organization.
Mike Vasil’s 2024 performance at Triple-A highlighted troubling trends that hampered his effectiveness. His strikeout percentage dropped significantly, falling from 26.4% in Double-A in 2023 to 17.9% in 2024. This decline in swing-and-miss ability reduced his ability to escape jams and dominate hitters at the higher level.
Contributing to his struggles was an increase in his hit rate, rising from 7.6 H/9 in 2023 to 10.4 H/9 in 2024. This jump in hits allowed inflated his WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) to 1.545, making it difficult for him to consistently limit damage. These issues point to either command challenges, difficulty adjusting to more advanced hitters, or both.
While Vasil’s raw tools, including his four-pitch mix, still provide a foundation for a promising future, addressing these control and command issues will be critical for his progression. With development, he could leverage his arsenal to become a reliable contributor at the big-league level.
