Dom Luszczyszyn, The Athletic’s numbers specialist, is well-known for using his statistical model to give monetary value to player productivity.
He forecasts NHL players’ future performances and determines their worth on paper.
He made headlines a few years back when he rated Nick Suzuki’s contract as one of the worst in the league. It’s worth noting, though, that he was the first to admit it was an abnormality in his model.
He remained optimistic that things would improve. Since then, we have observed that it has.
In a document published this morning on the league’s 32 payrolls, Luszczyszyn stated that witnessing Suzuki become a #1 NHL center made him a great bargain.
In fact, as you can see from his model, Cole Caufield ($9.5 million) and Nick Suzuki ($9.4 million) should be generating significantly more money than they are today. They’re two players who give the Habs a run for their money, and both are paid less than $8 million each year.
The Habs have several players who are worth more than their contracts, but none have made as much of a (positive) difference as Samuel Montembeault in Luszczyszyn’s model.
Montembeault believes he should be the Habs’ third-highest paid player, earning $7.9 million per year. This represents an almost $5 million boost over the $3.15 million he gets per season.
Samuel Montembeault is just absolutely dialed in pic.twitter.com/j4y7pEo3z1
— Scott Matla (@scottmatla) February 7, 2024
Of course, you must take some and leave some for your model. This is his first time ranking goaltenders, and he does not go into detail about every player in the NHL.
What we do know is that the Habs’ #1 goaltender’s contract helps them rank 16th among the most mass-efficient clubs, excluding entry-level contracts.
But, why is it so high? Surely because, for the past two years, Montembeault has placed sixth in the NHL for above-average saves with 35. That should help. What about $7.9 million?
Let us not forget that Dom Luszczyszyn was the first to propose that you must take some and leave some with his model, which predicts the future of players. Remember Nick Suzuki’s story…
And, given that Sergei Bobrovsky is slated to earn $5.2 million and Stuart Skinner $8.2 million, you’d think we’d take or leave this paradigm if it works for you.
That being said, it’s encouraging to see the work of the Habs’ Quebec goalkeeper getting recognized.
«Au cours des cinq dernières années, je n’ai rien fait durant l’été et j’ai plutôt commencé à me préparer en novembre ou décembre» 😳https://t.co/5ZJP4j5Ee2
— TVA Sports (@TVASports) July 25, 2024
