The Rams were great before Matthew Stafford, and they will stay great as long as Sean McVay is the leading man.
According to reports Tuesday afternoon, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams reached an agreement on a contract adjustment that will most certainly add guaranteed money to his deal beyond the 2024 season. Stafford has been seeking a modification to his contract since expressing his dissatisfaction with it to the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport during this spring’s NFL Draft. The restructured deal forbids the veteran quarterback from holding out during training camp.
While many Rams fans and commentators are likely sympathetic to Stafford’s situation and believe he deserves more guaranteed money on his contract until at least 2025, I disagree. I don’t believe the Rams can afford to compromise future flexibility for what would be his 37th season.
Stafford has battled injuries over the past two years with the Rams, much in the same way that other quarterbacks his age struggle to remain healthy and/or sustain the level of play we’ve come to expect from them. While adding guarantees to the current quarterback’s contract appears to be the safest option on the surface, perhaps—contrary to popular belief—preemptively agreeing to extend the marriage for another season may put the Rams in a difficult position next offseason.
How did the oldest quarterbacks in the 2023 and 2022 seasons fare? Let’s have a quick look.
2023
Aaron Rodgers (39) played four snaps before breaking his Achilles tendon during his debut season with the New York Jets.
Matthew Stafford (35) missed 1.5 games due to thumb injury. The optimal timing of the bye week aided recovery. Some of his best football of his career came after the bye.
Ryan Tannehill (35) suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 6 and lost the starting spot to rookie Will Levis. Still unemployed.
Kirk Cousins (35) tore his Achilles after eight weeks. Signed a big free agent contract with the Atlanta Falcons this offseason, while the Minnesota Vikings are beginning a new era with JJ McCarthy. Atlanta hedged their quarterback bet by selecting Washington’s Michael Penix, Jr. in the top ten of this year’s selection, surprising almost everyone in the NFL community.
Exactly.. Kirk is 36 when the season starts which people forget is old because of Brady but Matt Ryan fell off a cliff at 36.. Penix is arguably one of the best QBs in this draft.. dude can play .. solid pick by the Falcons https://t.co/m3IBPCC2Vs
— cowtown5 (@texasoccer5) April 26, 2024
Russell Wilson (34) was benched for the last two games of the season to avoid injury and contract guarantees. Will battle with Justin Fields for the starting quarterback job with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024.
2022
Tom Brady (age 45)
While Brady and Rodgers have maintained MVP-level play into their late 30s and even 40s, the same should not be expected of the NFL’s more human quarterbacks. Brady guided the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to an 8-9 record in 2022 before being defeated 14-31 in the wildcard round by the Dallas Cowboys in his final game.
Aaron Rodgers(37)
Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers concluded the season 8-9, including a four-game losing run from Weeks 6 to 9. Was Rodgers’ age a contributing cause to the Packers’ decline? Late in the season, the veteran quarterback appeared unwilling or unable to connect with a rather inexperienced corps of pass catchers.
Matt Ryan(37)
Matt Ryan was meant to save the Indianapolis Colts’ Frank Reich era, when the team traded a third-round pick for the signal caller from the Atlanta Falcons. Instead, Ryan slid off a cliff at an alarming velocity that was difficult to predict. It’s troubling since Stafford will be around the same age as Ryan during the 2024 season.
Ryan completed the 2022 season with a 67% completion rate, 3,057 yards in 11 games, 14 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a passer rating of 83.9.
Andy Dalton(35)
While Dalton started 14 games with the New Orleans Saints, he had previously been a backup at several stops by this time in his career and is not a fair comparison to the other players on this list.
Kirk Cousins(34)
Cousins enjoyed a career-best season in 2022, guiding the Vikings to a 13-4 record. He threw for more than 4,500 yards and 29 touchdowns.
Matthew Stafford (34) missed the following week’s game against the Arizona Cardinals due to a concussion after starting eight games. Stafford suffered a spinal cord injury and a potential concussion upon his return, sidelining him for the remainder of the season. He missed eight games in total.
Ryan Tannehill(34)
Tannehill was benched in the season’s second game in favor of Malik Willis after throwing only 117 yards and two interceptions. While Tannehill returned to the starting lineup, he sustained an ankle injury in Week 7 and missed two games. The veteran suffered the same injury in Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers, forcing him to spend the rest of the season on injured reserve. He missed a total of five games.
Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, and Matt Ryan are about to be a combined 17-27-1 this season. pic.twitter.com/2K6FgCccwi
— Charlie Clifford (@char_cliff) December 6, 2022
Sean McVay is the most critical key to the Rams’ success.
McVay astonished the NFL by transforming the Rams into a lively playoff contender in 2017, despite their being one of the league’s weakest and least interesting teams the previous year. By 2018, McVay had overseen an offensive revolution that had spilled over into college football, and the Rams had advanced to the Super Bowl as a result. Of course, the Super Bowl loss to the New England Patriots knocked the team back at least two years until they remade themselves with Stafford. This was a watershed moment in McVay’s career, and he emerged from the experience stronger than ever.
McVay’s ability to turn and reconfigure his offense demonstrates that every player is replaceable. How about Jared Goff? Forget your high-dollar extension. We’ll be aggressive in finding your replacement, even offering an additional first-round pick to someone willing to take on your inflated contract. Robert Woods? Puka Nacua, a late fifth-round choice by Los Angeles, took his place. How about Todd Gurley? While Kyren Williams isn’t as physically blessed, he was extremely productive a year ago.
Cam Akers was a strong rookie until he ruptured his Achilles tendon. How about Andrew Whitworth? Sure, having an outstanding left tackle would be good, but the Rams are investing more on the offensive interior than ever before—and they will attack defenses with more than 1,000 pounds of men between the tackles. It’s only a matter of time before McVay molds his offense after Cooper Kupp and Stafford, and those reprisals might be better than any previous incarnation.
"The next Saban and Belichick in the NFL right now is Sean McVay… Over the next five years, he's going to run guys out of this league. He's a paradigm shifter."@ColinCowherd explains the McVay Effect pic.twitter.com/XFfTOOOdcL
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) October 10, 2018
Stafford contributed significantly to the 2021 Super Bowl winning season. His ability to create from the pocket unlocked additional aspects of McVay’s offense that the team couldn’t exploit with Jared Goff. But this does not imply that Stafford is irreplaceable. At his best, McVay will continue to adapt to the chess pieces Les Snead places on the roster, and the Rams will have the ability to counterpunch when defenses tie one arm behind their back. What works for the Rams now may not work tomorrow, but the team believes McVay can find answers and figure things out on the fly.
Guaranteeing Stafford the starting job in 2025 is unwise
By altering Stafford’s deal, the Rams are essentially stating that the veteran will return as the team’s starting in 2025. However, as evidenced by the lists of the oldest quarterbacks over the last two seasons, deterioration can occur quickly—whether as a result of a deteriorating skill set (Matt Ryan) or injury (Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers). Guaranteeing more years on Stafford’s contract carries risk, maybe to a significant degree.
Sean McVay revived the Rams in the midst of a roster reset. Combined with their innovation on offense, it's why he's my Coach of the Year. @Nate_Tice handed out all of our season-long awards on The Athletic Football Show.
Love these shows.
Full show: https://t.co/gFAyWRBjD9 pic.twitter.com/cvZpN6sGS2
— Robert Mays (@robertmays) January 10, 2024
How do we feel about the 2025 season if Stafford misses half of this year? Can we say with assurance that he will continue where he left off and be the same player? What if Jimmy Garoppolo, in place, produces 80-90% of the same offensive output at a fraction of the cost? How long can Stafford rely on his elite arm talent before losing his unique competitive advantage? He’s been in the NFL for more than a decade and a half. He has taken a lot of hits. Perhaps Stafford still has three seasons of high-level play in him. Maybe he has three games.
Ultimately, no one knows when the decrease will occur, but the risk increases with each passing year. It is imprudent for the Rams to give up future flexibility in order to address concerns about a single player’s contract.
