The Buffalo Bills eventually realized they needed to take a different approach to overcome the AFC’s finest teams in the playoffs. They bid farewell to Stefon Diggs, Mitch Morse, Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and other veterans who helped the team win four consecutive AFC East championships.
Division championships are good, but not enough to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals, who have terminated the Bills’ postseason runs the previous four years.
The Bills’ roster isn’t as strong on paper, but it might allow for a new core group to form, forcing the coaching staff to be more creative on the field. Buffalo took off last season after Joe Brady took over offensive play-calling duties, which swiftly brought out the best in Josh Allen.
With Allen in his prime, the Bills will almost certainly have a shot to challenge for the Super Bowl. However, there is little doubt that they will need a few weeks to adjust to all of the changes that transpired throughout the summer.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Trading Diggs, releasing veteran players
The Bills surrendered their greatest wide receiver to the Houston Texans for nothing this season, but they did earn a 2025 second-round pick. With Allen on the roster, the Bills won’t have to wait until next season to fill the vacuum left by Diggs and Gabe Davis, who joined with the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency. The Bills also parted ways with Morse, White, Poyer, and Hyde as they attempted to fix their salary cap while simultaneously forming a new core group around Allen.
Buffalo may struggle early in the season with an inexperienced squad, but perhaps change was required for a star-studded team that consistently fell short in the playoffs. Allen frequently placed targets on Diggs as their on-field relationship grew stale over the last two seasons. Last season, the Bills experienced life without Diggs as the main focus of the offense when they won the AFC East. Diggs was used less, and the Bills relied more on the running game with James Cook, allowing Allen to run an effective offense. They weren’t as explosive, but they won games and earned the opportunity to play the Chiefs at home in the playoffs.
Ironically, the divisional game could have ended differently if Allen and Diggs had connected downfield late in the fourth quarter. Perhaps he wasn’t meant to throw that pass to Diggs. We’ll see if the Bills are better off without their former first-team All-Pro receiver.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 2 to 6
Speaking of growing pains, the new-look Bills may struggle early in the season, with four road games in the first six weeks. After opening the season at home against the Arizona Cardinals, the Bills will travel to face the Miami Dolphins for the first of two meetings. Then they’ll return home to face the Jacksonville Jaguars before embarking on a three-game road trip against the Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, and New York Jets. If the Bills lose every game on the road trip (all three teams are considered playoff contenders), they may lack the experience on the roster to turn their season around, as they did last season after a 6-6 start.
Breakout player to watch: TE Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid’s breakout season might be said to have occurred during his outstanding rookie year, but he began the season behind Dawson Knox and was not a primary option for Allen until later in the season. Kincaid’s numbers from last season, which included 73 catches for 673 receiving yards and two touchdowns, are expected to be surpassed. With Diggs off the field, Allen’s first-round choice in 2023 might become his primary pass catcher. Coleman may need time to find his footing in the NFL, while Samuel and Shakir are downfield threats who may not be suited to the role of No. 1 pass catcher. Expect Kincaid to emerge as one of the league’s best tight ends.
Best-case scenario: Allen wins first MVP, Bills get by Chiefs
Last season, Allen threw for 4,306 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions, while also running for 524 yards and 15 touchdowns. That wasn’t enough to earn his first career MVP, but he might do so in 2024, even if his numbers fall in Buffalo’s post-Diggs era as a less-is-more approach takes hold. If the Bills win more games and Allen throws less interceptions, this might be the year they represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and bring home the first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history. But it would be much sweeter if they defeated the Chiefs in the playoffs—the team that has handed the Bills three playoff losses in four years.
Allen performed at an extraordinary level as the Bills won five consecutive games to defeat the Dolphins in the AFC East. Allen may perform similarly over the course of a whole season with Brady calling the offensive plays. When Brady replaced former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey midway through the 2023 season, he unleashed Cook, Kincaid, and Shakir while also improving the Bills’ offense.
Worst-case scenario: The Bills’ reset ends up being more of a rebuild
Many believe the Bills will be fine without a few older players who have been key to the team’s success in recent seasons because Allen is still on the roster. But what if Allen faces a youthful receiving corps, as Aaron Rodgers did in his final years in Green Bay? The Bills have prior experience with Samuel, but he has been more of a reliable third option than a standout player. And maybe Shakir benefited from favorable matchups that he won’t see again without Diggs. Coleman could face significant pressure to fill the void.
Sean McDermott has done an excellent job of getting the most out of his young defenders, but the Bills lack star power on that side of the ball and will not be able to rely on veterans like Poyer and Hyde to provide consistency in the secondary. The 2024 season will tell whether the Bills are in the midst of a rebuild or simply needed to retool their roster to advance in the playoffs. If the Bills are rebuilding, they may let McDermott go after eight seasons.
Head coach-quarterback duo ranking
No. 8: McDermott (18) and Allen (3)
The Bills appear to be going through a soft reset. Still, with Allen at the helm, Buffalo is a dangerous club. The main question is whether McDermott can make the proper decisions in critical situations, which has been his downfall. To keep his job, the Bills will almost certainly need to win at least one more playoff game, if not more. — Matt Verderame.
Fantasy pick: Coleman
The Bills moved Diggs and lost Davis as a free agent, leaving 241 available targets based on last season’s numbers. Coleman, the first pick in Round 2, is now considered a possible sleeper based solely on volume. He will also get to catch passes from one of the league’s top quarterbacks, which is a clear advantage for the rookie.
Best bet: Allen over 27.5 passing touchdowns (+110) at DraftKings
Sure, the Bills appear significantly different on paper, but Allen has not thrown for fewer than 28 touchdowns since 2019. I’m optimistic about the Bills after the facelift. Shakir, Kincaid, and Coleman are capable of completing this task, and I welcome the additional compensation. — Jennifer Piacenti.
Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.
